probably longer than the life of the car.

It’s not beyond imagining that the “life” of an EV could soon be measured in decades. Vehicles made with all aluminum uni-body construction won’t rust away and without a combustion engine and it’s required transmission all that’s left is the wheel assemblies, interior parts and electronics.

So not only “what is the life of the car” but also who cares if the battery pack costs $5,000 (or more) to replace when you can expect the vehicle as a whole to last another 20, 30, or even 40 years?

Auto manufacturers go out of their minds with worry when considering a future where people aren’t buying replacement vehicles every few years.

I’ve seen that article plenty of times and it is important to actually read it

A crowdsourced study by Tesla owners in the Netherlands—using data from around the world—showed that Model S owners were seeing an average degradation of around 5 percent in 50,000 miles of driving. The degradation curve also begins shallowing out, indicating a loss of around 10 percent capacity or less after 150,000

A quick chatgpt query (because lazy) sais the average US driver drives around 13.5k miles per year and the average “Western Europe” driver drives around 6-9k miles per year. Which makes sense considering the much more densely packed cities for the latter and the former’s complete lack of public transportation.

So a US driver of an EV (and not necessarily just a bay are grocery shopper) would be seeing the 5 percent loss within the first 3-5 years and would be close to that 150k after ten years. Again, your mileage may vary (literally), but it is a function of charge cycles and use.

The U.S. Department of Energy, meanwhile, predicts today’s EV batteries ought to last a good deal past their warranty period, with these packs’ service lives clocking in at between 12 and 15 years if used in moderate climates. Plan on a service life of between eight and 12 years if your EV is regularly used in more extreme conditions.

Which always is “define moderate climates” and “Y’all hear about this thing called global warming?” (well, the DOE is not allowed to because of republicans but…).

Honestly? It is a concern but I also think a ten year life span is “reasonable” for people buying new cars. And… we might see a focus on more easily replaced batteries to make used EVs more viable in the next decade. Ah, who I am kidding, we are going to see federal bans on anything that isn’t a tesla.