Addition for some images: https://fosstodon.org/@mykhaylo/112750117055749477
Hundreds of people rushed to clear debris at the hospital, where windows had been smashed and panels ripped off. Parents holding babies walked in the street outside, dazed and sobbing after the rare daylight aerial attack.
“It was scary. I couldn’t breathe, I was trying to cover (my baby). I was trying to cover him with this cloth so that he could breathe,” Svitlana Kravchenko, 33, said.
Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky said Russia fired more than 40 missiles, damaging residential and commercial buildings and infrastructure in Kyiv, his home city of Kryvyi Rih, the central city of Dnipro and two eastern cities.
Ten people were killed and 35 wounded in the main wave of attacks on Kyiv, authorities said. Some two hours later, debris from another missile attack hit a different hospital in Kyiv, killing four more and injuring three more, the emergency services said.
Moscow has repeatedly denied targeting civilians and civilian infrastructure, although its attacks have killed thousands of civilians since it launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022.
So… How long does this have to keep going on before someone actually does something to stop Russia?
I’m going to tackle this as best as I can. I am not a subject matter expert, but have done enough political science work and worked with both Power Transition Theory and Great Power Theory to at least kick off a discussion. None of what follows is my personal opinion on the war or ideas concerning morality or just wars. This is also very simplified.
-At the moment, the Ukraine War is contained. It is not spreading and, thus, the world powers are not interested in intervening. Even in this case, the amoral state (read Richelieu) has no reason to get involved.
-The war’s continuation, at the moment, does not threaten state survival to anyone outside of Russia and Ukraine. Maybe Belarus? But I view that as a non-issue since they are essentially Russia’s puppet state.
-Internal challenges in nation’s that could intervene will prevent them from doing so. Why? Escalating to “boots on the ground” has one of two effects. One, a surge of nationalism that allows the state to absorb immediate shocks and unifies the population. Two, a complete disruption of legitimacy and systems that could cause the state to collapse. There’s not enough risk to justify the possibility of two happening.
-The western European states have not seen a major ground war in Europe since WW2. Entire generations have no idea what a modern nation-state vs. nation-state war is actually like. Afghanistan or Iraq, where international forces did operate, was very different. Getting into a shooting war directly with another power is a huge risk and huge unknown.
Also, Russia is a nuclear power. There is likely a line where Putin will respond with nuclear bombardment. The trick is, where is that line?
The honest answer is no one knows. The line is subject to change. My opinion is foreign troops threatening Russia.
Hypothetical (I hope for now and forever) If, say, France actually put soldiers in Ukraine Russia would do all sorts of shenanigans short of nuking anyone. If French and Ukrainian troops entered Russia, then we’d see tactical nukes used on Ukrainian soil for certain.
