cross-posted from: https://sh.itjust.works/post/28311786
Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday signed a revised nuclear doctrine declaring that a conventional attack on Russia by any nation that is supported by a nuclear power will be considered a joint attack on his country.
The signing of the doctrine, which says that any massive aerial attack on Russia could trigger a nuclear response, reflects Putin’s readiness to threaten use of the country’s nuclear arsenal to force the West to back down as Moscow presses a slow-moving offensive in Ukraine.
Bold of you to assume Russia can nuke anybody. Putin would have to do a lot of talking to explain why they had to nuke Ukraine when the war is going sooo great according to all the state media. He isn’t invincible even in Moscow. And if they hit anyone else, then it’s pretty much all over but the crying for all of us.
I appreciate this comment because it’s the one thing that might stop Russia. It’s not going to be nuclear deterrence, it’s going to be internal and external pressure.
I don’t trust Putin to be rational though and neither should anyone else.
Kinda it. He’s set up his government to operate like an organized crime syndicate, so our best hope at the moment is to weaken them by degrees and wait for a more risk-averse (or at least more realistic) power player to usurp him.
I think counting on a coconspirator to become rational and brave is a hope. He’s president for life though and lives in a literal villain lair. Miles of impassible mountains with one way in patrolled by heat seaking drones and all matter of radio and seismic sensors, and an frigid ocean patrolled by everything up to nuclear submarines on the other. I’d put about as much faith in it as I would waiting around for natural causes or a jilted lover, a disgruntled chef, or whatever dumb luck might bring the world closer to peace.
To add to this, I think Russia has already committed to losing at least ten million people if hot war breaks out, and for Putin that would be like no big deal if it got him a good enough strategic advantage, whether it’s pushing back NATO or undermining democracy. That is to say, I hope it won’t take an utter humanitarian catastrophe to rock Putin’s goons hard enough to turn on him.
