they have enough leverage at their disposal to decimate china like they did in the past
I do not believe they have that leverage anymore. The Global North has largely deindustrialized itself, and it currently seems unable to escape the neoliberal hole it has dug for itself, and that will prevent re-industrialization. The US and Europe combined can’t even produce enough munitions for Ukraine’s needs right now. The US military is very large, but it is extraordinarily expensive, and it is very ineffective in proportion to cost. It produces very technologically sophisticated, expensive garbage, and their older, large platforms have been poorly maintained. The US has proven to itself in its own war games that it can’t reliably take on Iran, never mind China. Technology-wise, China has already surpassed the West in some areas, and that trajectory has a lot of momentum. China files more patents than the next nine countries combined. The Global North is also a minority of the world’s population by a long shot, and it holds a minority of the world’s natural resources. It is an empire in decline.
In the Global North’s attempts at “international” sanctions, it is ostracizing itself from the global majority. The Global South—Russia and China included—are ignoring those sanctions and doing its own thing. Even Global North countries are skirting their own sanctions and trading with Russia on the sly. A recent interview with Marxist economists Michael Hudson and Richard Wolff: A World Pushed to Resist: U.S. Policies and the Rise of Global Alliances
I do not believe they have that leverage anymore. The Global North has largely deindustrialized itself, and it currently seems unable to escape the neoliberal hole it has dug for itself, and that will prevent re-industrialization. The US and Europe combined can’t even produce enough munitions for Ukraine’s needs right now. The US military is very large, but it is extraordinarily expensive, and it is very ineffective in proportion to cost. It produces very technologically sophisticated, expensive garbage, and their older, large platforms have been poorly maintained. The US has proven to itself in its own war games that it can’t reliably take on Iran, never mind China. Technology-wise, China has already surpassed the West in some areas, and that trajectory has a lot of momentum. China files more patents than the next nine countries combined. The Global North is also a minority of the world’s population by a long shot, and it holds a minority of the world’s natural resources. It is an empire in decline.
the american war chest no longer relies on an industrial base and it’s military is a vestige of a time that hasn’t yet completely passed but has already started to as you pointed out.
to be clear, industrialization is absolutely necessary for a long run, but they have more than enough financial surplus to outlast the entire world without it long enough to maintain their control until an industrial based can be created from scratch and they tackle one problem at a time. the first priority is always to nip social & economical movements that challenge their financial position in the bud and in every way that they can and at every opportunity.
the combined western military might alone is still capable of decimating china; but it would be a mistake to go with such an old fashion heavy hand (at least for now) when you can user newer and more surgical weaponry like american dominance in technology. china is still dependent on western technology despite their own impressive technological prowess and progress in mitigating it as a threat to them; but like the american military, it’s MUCH bigger and deeper than anything china can realistically counter as evidenced by the russian contributor expulsions from the linux kernel maintainer’s group and TSMC refusing to service chinese chip makers.
In the Global North’s attempts at “international” sanctions, it is ostracizing itself from the global majority. The Global South—Russia and China included—are ignoring those sanctions and doing its own thing. Even Global North countries are skirting their own sanctions and trading with Russia on the sly.
the second biggest and strongest weapon my in country’s arsenal is social engineering and they’ve also successfully used it maintain narratives like china is being a bully in the international affairs and anyone speaks well of them in any light is automatically a “tankie”.
like defederation & bannings in the lemmyverse; the ostracizing people are shooting themselves in the foot, but it’s happening so slowly that it can only be seen from the lens of experience and that same experience also says that they will happily continue doing it against their boogeyman-of-the-month and no matter how detrimental it is to their own goals.
and also like in the lemmyverse; the ostracization leans into their leverage right now with key chess pieces like the linux kernel, tsmc, finances, and majority support (in lemmy’s case).
more surgical weaponry like american dominance in technology.
- WSJ a year ago: China and Russia Are Far Ahead of the U.S. in the Race for Hypersonic Missiles
- The Economist last week: In some areas of military strength, China has surpassed America
.
china is still dependent on western technology
It goes both ways.
- American Security Project a year ago: Despite Sanctions, U.S. Defense Still Sources from China
- Forbes yesterday: America’s Carriers Rely on Chinese Chips, Our Depleted Munitions Too
yes, the chinese have made a great deal of impressive progress at mitigating the military and economic leverage that works against them (technological too, but only to a degree so far); but they still have a long way to go at mitigating the other forms of leverage that the west has as its disposal, particularly in the arenas of technology, social engineering, and international tribalism.
our own inertia in the west is helping buy time to catch up and they can buy more time in the near future by aggressively reaching out the countries that the trump administration is going to abandon in the near future. however, unlike russia & cuba rn, a handout isn’t going to fix anything in the long run, but it’s a needful & beneficial place to start and they have to race against the clock to convert those countries from economic backwaters into players on the world’s stage to mitigate the leverage from international tribalism (among others) and their lack of imperial experience is likely to bite them in the ass if they don’t do it right.
