I never said it was low turnout. I said that if more people voted, particularly people who voted in 2020, then it wouldn’t have been as close in those states. Millions of democratic voters sat out the election this time and that is undeniable. And many because they didn’t think it mattered or didnt think the candidate was perfect. If they had voted because of whatever would have gotten them to vote then things wouldn’t been as close in those solidly blue states.
There were definitely people that defected but that doesn’t negate my point. 2024 was high turnout but it was particularly and mainly high for the republican party and that’s a key reason things were closer with the solidly blue states that you are claiming are swing states. And most defectors had a single issue for why, mainly things like inflation and housing costs, and also because they were simply rebelling against the incumbents as others have been doing around the world.
If more people voted in those states then things wouldn’t have been as close and calling them swing states is disingenuous. That’s all I’m saying.
Swing State is 5 point margin or less. Virginia is like 5.1 right now so it’s arguably stretching the definition, but still.
Also as I pointed out, that argument doesn’t hold up nearly as well in New Hampshire or Minnesota. Trump basically ignored NH despite giving Virginia and New Mexico plenty of attention. NJ got more attention. Hell, NY and Cali got more attention. He visited it with Vance once at the literal last minute because of how hard the polls tightened in the last week(see 538). Not to mention the third party spread there was horrible for him, RFK Jr and Chase Oliver both there(and New Hampshire Republicans are very libertarian), and just Jill Stein on the left, no Cornel or Claudia or one of the fringe Socialists.
Take out RFK Jr, add in Claudia or Cornel, get Trump to give them the same level of attention he gave Virginia or New Mexico, maybe make a speech with those clips of Democrats calling to end New Hampshire and Iowas Primary lead spot vowing to protect their first primary role. I genuinely think it would have flipped Red in that scenario.
The other two no, but Minnesota had their Golden Boy as the VP and only held by less than 4 points. Without him? With more Trump visits? Ehhhh. New Mexico was mostly fine, I’m pretty much entirely citing 1.1% of the vote going to RFK Jr. Probably past the Swing State margin without that. Also there’s a new Liberal Party there made from moderate Libertarians.
