Until today, I’ve been thoroughly in favor of supporting Ukraine. Since Ukraine isn’t going to get any support from the next administration, rushing out a final aid package (if the current administration can even manage that) only seems like it will briefly delay Russia’s slow victory.
I’d like to be shown that I’m wrong. Please comment if you have an outlook that’s more positive than mine.
I have one, hear me out: it looks like the current german gov will decide to give up and have early elections. Current polls suggest that Merz will become chancellor. On multiple occasions he criticized Scholz for his cautious approach and voiced his support for Taurus deliveries. Not sure if he will go through but I think he specifically mentioned Taurus so often and prominently that it won’t be easy to back pedal now. So it’s likely that Taurus (and with it the Kerch bridge?) is back on the menu.
(Imho he’s quite a shitty politician otherwise, but maybe he can get at least this right)
With the current Zeitgeist, I’m afraid of a landslide win for the AfD
But maybe I just lost hope…
Well, we don’t actually know that the next administration won’t support them any. We assume they won’t because of Trump’s attitude to Ukraine, but the republicans have been somewhat divided over the issue, and Trump just does whatever he randomly feels like, and sending more military aid does benefit the MIC that can pay politicians, so it possible, if unlikely, that they’d get some support from them. There’s also the possibility of support from Europe or elsewhere in the world. Finally, while a Ukrainian loss without foreign support seems quite likely, the pace of Russia’s advances and resource expendature are such that a win for them is no longer likely to be “annex Ukraine or make it a puppet rump state”, but more “take a strip of land close to the current occupation line”, in which case a stronger Ukraine has a better negotiating position and so may be able to give up less.
