Image via Katapult (Instagram, German)
Data source & longer analysis: https://europeelects.eu/2024/11/04/u-s-election-europeans-would-vote-for-harris-if-they-could/
How Europe did actually vote
Sauce Considering that Harris would more or less match renew Europe + Green + S&D, and that Trump would match the huge blue block at the right, I don’t think we’re doing much better than our American friends
Yeah, I’m Italian and I guarantee that we would not (unfortunately) vote for Harris. We have just elected our farthest-to-the-right government ever, and far right politicians have been popular here for a few decades, now.
I really wish this graph was true, though. I need at least one reason to be proud of my country.
I was going to sarcastically ask “ever ever?” but suspect your statement might just be literally true…
To be fair, I was talking specifically about the Republican period (1946 and later). As much as I despise our current government, Meloni is not Mussolini yet. We’re slowly getting there, though, and I’ve never seen so many fascism sympathizers in the open (including in the government).
Our scholastic system has failed us.
Also what would happen if we used the same election system where the winner is not decided by the total votes but how many districts they have the majority in and the right was manipulating the district borders in their favour
ow many districts they have the majority in and the right was manipulating the district borders in their favour
To be fair, it’s already an issue in some European countries, may-be not as much as the US, but I’ve seen weird electoral district in France too
I tend to agree with you but I think most EPP voters don’t. They consider themselves moderate and would probably prefer Harris over Trump.
Even though they claim to be moderate, pragmatic, anchored in real-life, what they vote and what they say, looks like pretty Trumpian, at least in the French political spectrum. Guess who voted against the gay-marriage ? Guess who voted against banning conversion therapies ? Guess who proposed to ban gender affirming care for minor ? Guess who wants stricter immigrations rules (without hiring civil servant and judge to apply the existing laws) Guess who goes into anti-woke rant (Actually, we can even extend to some centrists from renew, especially when crossing the belgian border , Guess who pass law to increase the weight of private insurance over public healthcare ?
True. I suspect there are a bunch of effects that come into play because the question is basically, “What would go do if you could vote for another country?”
E.g., I am not sure whether respondents voted for the candidate they would want to live under (which I think would be the more straightforward option) vs. which candidate they would want to see in another country (for the benefit of their home country).
There’s also a strong element of how deep people are in the national/US propaganda cycle vs. hearing a few news items from a distance.
Also … The image above is of course presupposing a per-country first-past-the-post voting system. Denmark only has 4% Trump voters (which I don’t think matches with their national voting behavior). However, e.g. Germany polled at 21% Trump voters which happens to line up almost perfectly with the percentage of far-right Afd voters.
I am quite sure that a lot of German CDU/CSU and FDP voters would also vote Trump over Harris, if these were the two only choices for the next federal election in Germany.
What we mostly hear about them is Trump being the crazy criminal and Harris being the rational decent person. It is very detached from the policies and also we saw how the right and far right media in Germany wrecked havoc on the Green party in the 2021 pre-election time. So the way the media and people talk about them would be very different. Also we have Merz having a stable high polling at 30-35% with going the Trump route. Just that instead of eating peoples pets, immigrants are stealing dentist appointments. The CSU also copied a lot of the anti LGBT propaganda from the US Republicans, the Greens are the source of all economic problems…
We are a lot closer to electing Trump-like people than this study suggests.
I am pretty sure USA Democrates are closer to EU moderate right, they are not the left as we consider it in EU (except for Bernie Sanders maybe). So you should probably include those too.
To be honest most of even Bernie’s proposals are things that Europeans fought for decades ago. He’s basically a social democrat.
The parties that I know in the EPP (Belgian and dutch) are definitely to the left of the USA democrats, which isn’t very hard. On the national level, member parties of EPP will work and have worked together with their s&d counterparts in many countries. And in the eu parliament, s&d, renew and EPP have indeed worked together for many years.
So yeah, they definitely would not be in Trump’s camp. I don’t get how one can claim that EPP is far right.
EPP is centrist, not far right, and they work together with greens + socialists + liberals. The national parties that are members of the EPP, that I know, are the old christian democrat parties and in terms of the USA Overton window, they would be to the left of USA democratic party. The far right only has about a quarter of MEPs.
"Combined, the three political groups on the right have 187 MEPs, just over a quarter of the total, but they are viewed as unlikely to form a coherent and united bloc. Following the election, leaders of the EPP, S&D and Renew Europe groups stressed their commitment to working together as a pro-EU “democratic alliance”. The S&D and Renew Europe, together with the Greens/EFA, also stressed that they rejected cooperation with groups on the right, including the ECR. "
https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-10068/
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