Well it looks like we can both agree that round 2 Fascist Trump Boogaloo won’t be a positive thing and will instead be profoundly negative.
Let’s be clear your hope he won’t get anything real done is misplaced wishful thinking at best. Even if he can’t reach his goals he is an enormous piece of shit and those in his orbit that will be assisting him are often even worse.
It is allowing life to be breathed into a astro-turfed political movement created by the wealthy to openly oppress our citizens.
Stroking racial and gender divides does not settle tensions and instead ramps them up. Think about the next gay man who gets beat to death because of these bullshit culture wars. Think about the next young mother who dies because politicians are deciding their health options. Trump and his party own this shit.
Trump winning will just be another misogynist dagger in half our population continuing to set back rights and progress. The example we are setting for our daughter’s by even allowing this man to run is disgusting.
While I can appreciate your impartiality historians are not going to be half as kind as your are. In fact, I would say a lot of what you said felt more like an apology, giving the benefit of the doubt, and hand waving.
a lot of what you said felt more like an apology, giving the benefit of the doubt, and hand waving
A lot of it comes from Hanlon’s Razor:
Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity.
We can substitute all manner of things here for “stupidity,” like narcissism, shortsightedness, or laziness, and I think it would hold true. And when I look at what Trump did during his first term and compare this campaign to his previous campaign, it has the same sense of throwing everything into the kitchen sink hoping something will resonate with someone to get him elected. In his first term, he did and almost none of what he talked about in his first campaign. He barely scratched the surface on perhaps his #1 campaign promise: build the wall.
Everything looks like it’s coming from the same place: narcissism. Trump wants to be President because he wants the title, not because he has some larger plan to transform the US into something else. I don’t think he cares about Project 2025 at all, he just wants to be known as the “great deal-maker” who rescued the country’s economy and put it back on track. I don’t think he honestly cares about women’s reproductive health, LGBT issues, etc (in neither a good or bad way), he’ll pander to whoever he needs to pander to in order to get elected, but once he’s elected, I think his main focus is on leaving a legacy, and that means mucking about in the economy, not leading a coup and campaigning to make life suck for women and LGBT folk.
To be clear, I think Trump is absolutely dangerous, I just don’t think he’s dangerous in quite the same way as liberals make him out to be. I agree with economists that his policies (tariffs esp) will be dangerous for the US economy and could lead us into another recession. But I think there’s a good chance that either he’ll get gun-shy about the worst of the tariffs (we’re in a bull market, so he has no need to go hard to look like he’s “fixing the economy”) or the judicial branch will block the worst of the tariffs arguing that there’s no legitimate national security concerns. He’ll probably pass some sort of tax cut, which will increase deficit spending and cause some inflation, he’ll probably pass some BS laws that benefit Musk’s companies, and he’ll probably let Republicans get a token social issue bill through, but all-in-all, it’ll probably be a disappointing term like his last one.
I could absolutely be wrong, but I honestly do believe he just wants to play President again.
I do think a Harris presidency will be somewhat better, but only because she’s not speedrunning tariffs. I think she’ll also increase inflation a bit if she tries to do anything to ease it (i.e. “price gouging,” first-time homebuyer assistance, etc). But she doesn’t seem to be aggressively pushing for anything in particular, so as long as she doesn’t mess with things too much, we’ll probably be fine. Even her tax changes probably won’t mess with stuff too much, though I am worried about her tax on unrealized capital gains, but there’s almost no chance that’s actually getting passed, at least not in the form she seems to imply it will take (she’s been short on details).
Maybe this sounds like an apology, idk. I think Trump is dangerous, but not “democracy is at stake!” dangerous. He just wants to be in the spotlight once more. I also think Harris is dangerous, but only if she actually does what she promises, and I seriously doubt she’ll get anything near what she’s promising through Congress. So on the whole, Harris would be way better for both the economy and social issues than Trump, but even if Trump is elected, he’s not going to turn us into a fascist state or anything, he’s just going to drive up inflation a bit and maybe trigger a recession.
Yeah it does sound like an apology. You sit here hemming and hawing over the two-sides of the same coin fallacy saying one is perhaps slightly worse than the other.
You can’t even compare the two logically as candidates or human beings. I guess when you had a daughter who was raped and the police won’t take it seriously because of our fucked up culture it changes you.
I won’t sit here and listen to a detached armchair comparison of the economic outlooks if one gets elected over the other. Like that is what even fucking matters and in fact plays into decades of bullshit rhetoric the right has been pushing. The conservatives have never been better with the economy and that is objectively verifiable.
You pretend that Trump can’t break this country. That putting a buffoon in charge doesn’t denigrate our place in the world. That the women in our country will ever feel safe, that discrimination won’t reign supreme.
You act like it is no big deal because you are privileged. You think it won’t affect you and you know the fucked up part. It may not.
But it will affect a lot of others. People you probably don’t think about. If you did you wouldn’t be worried about the economics and status quo.
The conservatives have never been better with the economy and that is objectively verifiable.
The fact that we’re even talking about the economy in a presidential race is honestly pretty ridiculous, the only impact the President has on the economy tends to be negative. Economic policy is a mix of the Federal Reserve policies and legislation, neither of which the President has a ton of control over. That said, Congress usually lets the President champion a bill or two.
Also, economic policy usually has a delayed impact, usually by a few years, so it’s often difficult to attribute economic changes to specific presidents. Yet, for some reason we give the sitting president the credit or blame for whatever happens, which encourages the President to take short-term measures to delay a recession.
You pretend that Trump can’t break this country
It’s possible he could, I just don’t think he’ll try to. He’ll certainly try to interfere w/ the economy (i.e. tariffs and other trade war nonsense), but I honestly don’t think he has plans beyond that.
I highly doubt he’ll have any impact on women, aside from perhaps those in the White House with him. He really doesn’t seem interested in getting involved in any of those issues, and he has even pushed back on legislative changes to abortion policy. It just doesn’t seem to be something he really wants to touch, but he’ll certainly take credit for the actions of others when he thinks it’ll benefit him (i.e. him bragging about overturning Roe v Wade, as if he actually had a hand in that at all…).
You act like it is no big deal
It is a big deal, and I’m really frustrated at the awful choices we have this year. Harris was dead last on my list of preferences when she ran for President, and her record as VP hasn’t changed my mind. I think she’s a terrible candidate, not because she’s a woman or any nonsense like that, I just think she doesn’t have good policies (or honestly any policies at all). In fact, I don’t even know what motivates her, she seems to also just say whatever she thinks people will like, but I guess she wins because she’s not nearly as extreme as her competitor. So it’s like picking between a soggy sandwich and obviously undercooked pork, one will make me regret eating it for the next hour, the other will make me regret it for the next day.
That said, Trump is way worse. Biden was my first vote for a Democrat for President ever, not because I liked him (he was almost my last pick when he ran for President), but because I thought he actually had a chance at winning my state since Trump is so disliked here. But no, he lost by 20% or so like every other candidate in my red state. I usually vote for a third party I agree with, but Trump’s first term changed that.
I’m absolutely with you that Trump is terrible. I just think he’s being made out to be a lot of things that he’s not, and that causes people to dismiss criticism against him. I think Trump is dangerous, not because he’s fascist or anything of that nature, but because he’s a narcissist, and not a particularly bright one at that. He seems to actually think crippling tariffs are a good thing, which is absolutely nuts! He would absolutely cause problems, but ones we can manage. On the bright side, hopefully it’ll demonstrate, yet again, that high tariffs are a terrible idea.
