The mainland Chinese SMIC is doing everything they can without access to ASML’s EUV machines, and have gotten further than anyone else has on DUV.
You can’t say that, though, because it implies Chinese engineers and information technology scientists are trailblazers rather than plagarists and IP thieves.
Intel did introduce both technologies in its 20A process (supposedly 2nm class), but then canceled it due to low yield. So they’re basically betting the company on their 18A process, and hoping they can get that to market before TSMC and Samsung hit their stride on 2nm.
And I’ve got a few shares in my retirement account riding on that success. But its more a hedge against my own cynicism than a sincere expectation. Intel, like Boeing, seems far more interested in rewarding investors in the short term than maintaining a foothold in the market long term.
You can’t say that, though, because it implies Chinese engineers and information technology scientists are trailblazers rather than plagarists and IP thieves.
I mean, I said what I said and I meant it. The Chinese are trailblazing a path nobody has tried before: DUV only for sub-10nm processes. It’s not ideal, and the reason why nobody did it before is because they already had EUV by the time they got there.
But I wouldn’t sleep on the ability of anyone to be able to solve problems using the tools at their disposal.
Especially since there’s nothing stopping the mainland Chinese companies from hiring Taiwanese engineers.
Not a ton of people believed that Taiwan could surpass Japan, either, but that happened in the 90’s. Not a ton of people believe that Japan can get back in the game, but Rapidus is making a play for 2nm.
Nothing is forever, and things are always changing. I’m somewhat optimistic that western sanctions will keep China from competing on the world stage at semiconductor fabrication, but I don’t think it’s a guarantee or in any way inevitable.
