How bad is this? Like WWIII bad or localized slaughter and ‘limited’ actions bad?
I don’t see how the Middle East war could escalate into a worldwide conflict. Ukraine, maybe. The Middle East conflict spiralling out of that territory? Nah.
Russia are not that bothered about Iran, and the US want to keep Israel around for the geopolitical influence they get from them, but I don’t think Israel is worth enough to the US to make them risk a direct confrontation with Russia.
Worst case scenario, Israel and Iran beat the shit out of each other while everyone else watches from the sidelines, making the occasional, half-hearted demand for a ceasefire. At most, Russia and US will continue supplying their respective friends with bombs and arms to profit off the conflict for as long as they can.
The middle east only spirals to a world war if other countries start their own shit hoping that the existing conflict is too distracting. The US putting boots on the ground in the middle east is a great chance for China to start shit in Taiwan or south Korea.
The saving grace is there aren’t that many countries that can escalate anything global besides the US and China. Russia seems fully occupied in Ukraine, and Europe is still a joke for military power currently.
Let’s just say a limited attack by Iran would be exactly what Netanjahu could wish for, to keep the war going and secure more support from the US. So this could be the start of another 30 year war in the middle east that draws in US ground troops at some point.
Biden’s not going to put boots on the ground in an election year. Americans are tired of meaningless, never ending, wars and nobody in government wants to find out just how tired they actually are.
That said, yeah, Bibi is trying to save his own skin as much as anything else. US officials have been quietly complaining to the media for months about this
Depends on Israels response. When Iran did this in April in retaliation for Israel bombing an Iranean embassy, Iran was like “we have retaliated and are good now”, Israel responded but it was limited, and status quo was restored.
If Israel decides to escalate (which is their default play lately), or if Iranean missiles hit forcing them to retaliate, there could be all out war, including involving the US.
If you want a hint of what’s to come:
The far-right Israeli finance minister (Bezalel Smotrich) writes on social media: “Like Gaza, Hezbollah and the state of Lebanon, Iran will regret the moment.”
Well the last time Iran fired stuff at Israel, the missles were all intercepted and didn’t do anything. So we’ll see. It may end up being another otherwise nothing burger, but considering Israel is actively invading Lebanon right now, the chances for larger and larger exchanges that begin overwhelming the Iron Dome are growing by the second.
My guess is it depends on the damage this attack will cause. If the missiles are all shot down or hit desert, it will be some punitive F-35 strike on an Iranian airfield somewhere. But if there’s significant damage and casualties it could escalate.
I don’t think Iran is going to risk all out war with Israel and the US. I suspect they expect most of their missiles (like the drones) to be shot down. Perhaps that’s wishful thinking though…
