I do hope you’re right because a direct conflict between US and China would be cataclysmic for the whole world. I also agree that US military likely understands that this wouldn’t end well for them, but it seems that the political class in US is completely unhinged. There’s also little sign that their puppets administering the island learned all the wrong lessons going by these statements https://inews.co.uk/news/world/taiwan-learning-ukraine-china-attack-3122942
I do think China will try to avoid a military confrontation, but there are red lines like putting missiles in Taiwan that would force China to act.
I believe that in the United States, the relationship between the military and politicians is more of a balancing act rather than absolute subordination. For instance, during the transition between the Trump and Biden administrations, representatives of the U.S. military independently assured China that they would not launch nuclear weapons against China and would inform China of Trump’s military decisions. Such actions would be considered inconceivable in China, as it essentially means the military is operating outside the president’s control (Trump was still president at the time).
In ancient China, there was an event known as “Huang Pao Jia Shen” (Yellow Robe Incident), which highlighted the consequences of the military’s actual controller and the nominal controller being different individuals. Similar to the helicopters used for government investigations of military audits that always seem to “crash accidentally,” only to result in no conclusive outcomes, I think the U.S. military can be seen as akin to the “Fanzhen” or “Jiedushi” (regional military governors) of the Tang Dynasty in China. If politicians were to order the U.S. military to fight an unwinnable war, we might witness the military disobeying orders and the politicians “accidentally” meeting their demise.
China plans to complete the construction of a cross-sea bridge to Taiwan by 2035, and I believe the reunification of China could happen in the next few years. Due to the “de-Sinicization education” in Taiwan, the younger generation no longer sees themselves as Chinese. On Chinese domestic social media, the viewpoint of “retaining the island without retaining the people” has significant traction (mostly said in moments of anger). I believe the CPC (Communist Party of China) will not make Taiwan the main battleground. Instead, they might encircle but not attack.If the U.S. intervenes, they could attack U.S. assets in the first island chain, forcing the U.S. out of the Asia-Pacific region. If the U.S. does not intervene, it would essentially signal the collapse of the myth of U.S. military guarantees. This would shatter Taiwan’s illusions about the U.S., leading Taiwan to undergo a self-revolution and eventually join China.
