EV sales continue to rise, but the last year of headlines falsely stating otherwise would leave you thinking they haven’t. After about full year of these lies, it would be nice for journalists to stop pushing this false narrative that they could find the truth behind by simply looking up a single number for once.
Here’s what’s actually happening: Over the course of the last year or so, sales of battery electric vehicles, while continuing to grow, have posted lower year-over-year percentage growth rates than they had in previous years.
This alone is not particularly remarkable – it is inevitable that any growing product or category will show slower percentage growth rates as sales rise, particularly one that has been growing at such a fast rate for so long.
In some recent years, we’ve even seen year-over-year doublings in EV market share (though one of those was 2020->2021, which was anomalous). To expect improvement at that level perpetually would be close to impossible – after 3 years of doubling market share from 2023’s 18% number, EVs would account for more than 100% of the global automotive market, which cannot happen.
Instead of the perpetual 50% CAGR that had been optimistically expected, we are seeing growth rates this year of ~10% in advanced economies, and higher in economies with lower EV penetration (+40% in “rest of world” beyond US/EU/China). Notably, this ~10% growth rate is higher than the above Norway example, which nobody would consider a “slump” at 94% market share.
It’s also clear that EV sales growth rates are being held back in the short term by Tesla, which has heretofore been the global leader in EV sales. Tesla actually has seen a year-over-year reduction in sales in recent quarters – likely at least partially due to chaotic leadership at the wayward EV leader – as buyers have been drawn to other brands, while most of which have seen significant increases in EV sales.
Brakes may last the life of the EV (we were already seeing this with hybrids). Not only is there no engine oil, but there’s also no transmission oil, no spark plugs, no catalytic converter, and coolant needs are far reduced. Batteries already coming out of manufacturers are significantly better than what’s going in actual EVs on sale. That should make the heavier weight (more tire wear) go away.
There’s a whole engine life support system that just goes away. It all adds up to much reduced lifetime costs. Especially if you do 90% of your charging at home.
Now, if we could get manufactures to make EVs as actual small cars instead of luxury SUVs, then we’d really see cost reductions. Hell, not even particularly small; a Toyota Corolla isn’t that small, but manufactures seem to think it is. The few options on the market for this (Mini Cooper SE, Nissan Leaf) are lackluster.
@frezik @bluGill Being pedantic: there’s still engine oil and transmission oil, but because (almost always, except in some performance BEVs) those are fixed and sealed, they practically do not require changing. Unless the manufacturer is unsure (some Hyundai EVs) or there’s a fault and repairs required taking the assembly apart.
I’m really confused by the comparison between Corolla and Leaf - here on the European side, Leaf is the bigger car. https://www.carsized.com/en/cars/compare/nissan-leaf-2017-5-door-hatchback-vs-toyota-corolla-2018-5-door-hatchback/
I’m using “small” as meaning “not a goddamn SUV”. Leaf is more of a hatchback.
I agree that size needs to come down. But in many parts of the US, the commute is a little too long for the small EVs with the current battery and charging technology.
I hope we get there though. Grew up in the 80s and miss the small, efficient, hot hatch world we had then.
100mi is plenty for the commutes of the vast majority of the population, and it’s not hard to reach that. The Mini SE does in its OG form. Although I also think people should consider e-bikes for commutes like that.
100mi is not plenty. Generally range is speced as best case. By the time you take off some because you are charging to 80% every day, and not running to empty, then take off more because you have to drive on the coldest winter day and your 100 miles is realistically only 40-50 or usable range. That will barely get you to work and back and doesn’t allow for running any lunch errands.
I ride my ebike to work, but my commute is a lot shorter than average and if my trip was much longer it wouldn’t be reasonable ebike range (I hate driving so I’d bike anyway, but at that point I’m a fanatic and it is no longer something I’d expect everyone to do). I still keep a ICE truck around for trips that are longer than I’d ride my bike (no transit where I live), it is rarely used but still a needed backup
The brakes on my wife’s ICE minivan have more than 100k mile, while that isn’t life of the car it is close enough. Transmission oil may or may not be sealed but that is a manufacturs choice - many people never change their transmission oil and get by with it. There is nothing about a ICE vs EV that makes a difference there (the torque of an EV puts the advantage to the ICE in this case!) Spark plugs, transmission oil, and coolant are generally speced for 100k mile change intervals - by then the car is owned by someone who isn’t using the dealer for the work and so no difference to the dealer. Catalytic converter is generally a life of the car item (unless stolen - a real problem but EV parts can be stole too) - when it wears out the car has enough miles on it that the owner will just put tape over the check engine light (or if there are inspections find a way to cheat)
Yes there is a difference in maintenance costs. However as an owner of an ICE I can confidently state most of the maintenance costs are for parts that are common to both.
I’m planning on buying an EV, but so far they don’t sell an EV minivan (the Pacifica hybrid gets pathetic range on battery so I won’t count it) in the US. Charge at home would save me a lot of money. However it is the charge at home responsible for the savings, not the maintenance costs.
The brakes on my wife’s ICE minivan have more than 100k mile
Pressing “X” to doubt. Pads do not last that long on a typical ICE car. Rotors can, but not pads.
by then the car is owned by someone who isn’t using the dealer for the work and so no difference to the dealer.
So there’s a cost, but we just fob it off on the next poor bastard. Or more likely, the market for used cars has factored this in, so you’re selling it for less. Money in your pocket over time ends up the same, but by a different route.
Now, if we could get manufactures to make EVs as actual small cars instead of luxury SUVs, then we’d really see cost reductions.
OMG this so hard. My wife and I have wanted an EV for years but we wanted something that apparently makes us bat shit crazy: a newer EV luxury hatchback that didn’t cost $100k+ and had at least 300 miles of actual range. Not an SUV, a truck, or a crossover. Just a fucking nice hatchback since we only have one vehicle, I spend 10+ hours a week commuting in it, my employer provides free charging, and we take frequent road trips with our two big stupid dogs. Options ranged from the Model S to the… Model S. Yep, that’s it. Only one and it’s from the crazy shit bag’s company.
So we bought a used Model S, so as not to give that rotten fuck stick any money, and don’t pay for any premium services. Still, come on auto manufacturers! I’d have bought a Toyota/Lexus or Lucid (who are also run by awful people) if there were options, but there aren’t.
We just got out first EV: an Acura ZDX. Nowhere near $100k, but not on the cheap side either. It is a quality, smaller SUV with lots of comfort features and a 280 mile range for the model we got. And the acceleration is nuts.
We’ve been charging it at home with the included 35A 220V charger and it has been fantastic. It is amazing how good it feels to not stop at gas stations.
Only thing we’ve lost is the ability to road trip. We still have another car we can use if we really needed to go distances but the charging infrastructure seems to be thin in this area.
On the small car side, there are more and more popping up in the US. They have ranges around the 150 mark which just won’t cut it. I get that it is a weight thing with the batteries but unless you’re in an area that has rapid charging at most places you stop you’re not gonna make it. I think that’s why you’re seeing so many midsize and large SUVs turned EV - the math just works better to give the range people are looking for.
