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4 points

At least in the UK there is now lots of mainstream discussion of “Is it time for people to leave twitter as it’s too much of a cesspool”. Granted they usually then mention threads or bluesky as an alternative not mastodon, but it is definitely possible for social media companies to die out. Once people start to leave in large numbers it can become a mass exodus (see digg and myspace).

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2 points
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I think the issue now is that the market got fragmented and now you can’t find as much content as before without using multiple services, which is an annoyance.

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