The same reality that thinking voting for Biden in a rural deep conservative state is going to swing the vote. You can convince every person in the cities to vote democratic and still lose to the country side that state. Voting doesn’t work the same for every state, don’t shame people for voting their conscious. It’s always okay to shame voting for Trump, but don’t shame people for voting third party.
Afaik, that’s simply not true. Take a look at the margins that Biden won by in 2020 in a few key states.
You’ll notice that the third party votes could’ve easily swung the state outcome either way.
Finally, you’ll notice how far behind third party votes are. The conclusion I’m drawing is that the possibility of third party votes influencing the outcome between the two candidates is greater than the possibility of a third party candidate winning.