maketotaldestr0i
Our Outlook reflects oil production naturally declining at a rate of about 15% per year. That’s nearly double the IEA’s prior estimates of about 8%. This increase is the result of the world’s shifting energy mix toward “unconventional” sources of oil and natural gas. These are mostly shale and dense rock formations where oil and gas production typically declines faster. To put it in concrete terms: With no new investment, global oil supplies would fall by more than 15 million barrels per day in the first year alone. At that rate, by 2030, oil supplies would fall from 100 million barrels per day to less than 30 million – that’s 70 million barrels short of what’s needed to meet demand every day.
The world would experience severe energy shortages and disruption to daily lives within a year of investment ceasing. Given price responses to past oil supply shocks, the permanent loss of 15% of oil supply per year could raise oil prices by more than 400%. By comparison, prices rose 200% during the oil price shocks of the 1970s. Within 10 years, unemployment rates would likely reach 30%. That’s higher than during the Great Depression of the 1930s.
yeah investment will continue and they will extend this timeline but we find less and less which is more costly to extract. The real shock of this is just that the situation is very dire very quickly if the pace cannot keep up. If you consider that investment could cease substantially due to financial issues or the fact that high oil prices may not be sustainable. How fast this collapse can happens if something goes wrong is really the reason i posted this. the decline can be so fierce it would be a huge stagflationary trigger which is how most people will experience this.
Previously, I remember you saying that the average person will start to feel very affected by the energy crunch starting sometime in the 2030’s and that the level of collapse will continue to increase for maybe a few decades after that.
I was probably talking about total energy including natural gas, because natural gas peak estimates come in around 2034, after that its crucial we have built out alternatives sufficiently to at least put a floor beneath us in terms of electrical generation. Its still possible we can get enough build out to at least keep functioning as depletion kicks in but we are currently not aggressive enough with installing renewable or nuclear capacity.
Down in Texas on gulf coast area, my friends panic buying a house but the mortgage is impossible unless the house is fully insured until it is paid off, the snag is that of all the insurers they called none would insure houses in this location and the house they are buying is not in flood zone and is not adjacent to any water. Big insurance is just straight abandoning huge areas and letting current policies fall off and not renewing
A year ago I was reading a bunch of papers on biofortification via plant breeding and there was some really interesting info about just how many people can be shifted from inadequate to adequate intake of some nutrients just by breeding in things like higher levels of lysine, zinc, iron, beta carotene, etc… into staple crops. In places like india and africa just replacing a handful of crops with improved varieties can shift hundreds of millions of people out of deficiency ranges that cause permanent cognitive and physical stunting/disability.
Overtime as trace mineral depletion continues in global cropland and as CO2 levels reduce nutrient density of crops purposeful breeding programs and soil repletion will be necessary to have decent health of previous generations
supplement is good for getting more detailed ideas of what various scenarios look like for particular countries